The women's basketball Hall of Fame Probability calculator: 2012 version

posted by Swish Appeal
Tuesday, October 23, 2012 at 8:43pm EDT

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What would most voters would probably look at when deciding if someone is a Hall of Fame candidate?

* Points/rebounds/assists. The traditional metrics that people love to summarize a player's ability. Each of these have their weaknesses - a ballhog can score a lot of points and nothing is said about assists vs. turnovers. When it comes to voting for the Hall of Fame, however, most people tend to forget that.

* MVP shares. We're not looking at just the number of MVP awards, but the number of "partial MVPs". Let's take Cappie Pondexter as an example. Pondexter has never won the MVP award, but she has gotten a lot of votes on MVP ballots. Her best year was 2010 when she got 209 MVP votes - Lauren Jackson got 323 that year. The MVP shares system therefore gives Pondexter 209/323 = 0.65 of an MVP share. Adding up across all four years gives Pondexter 1.09 MVP shares, making her a virtual MVP if not an actual one.

Of the Lead Pipe Cinches listed below, only Katie Smith has fewer MVP shares, with 1.06 to Pondexter's 1.09.

WNBA and ABL MVP Shares Leaders Lisa Leslie 6.40 Tamika Catchings 5.82 Lauren Jackson 5.61 Sheryl Swoopes 4.21 Diana Taurasi 3.06 Cynthia Cooper 2.98 Yolanda Griffith 2.80 Candace Parker 1.85 Natalie Williams 1.81 Tina Charles 1.77

* WNBA All-Star selections. Popular players tend to make the Hall of Fame. For Olympic years and years like 2010 when WNBA players participated in the FIBA World Championships in lieu of an All-Star Game, we consider a medal the equivalent of an All-Star selection.

* Height. A bonus is given for players that are shorter than their counterparts.

* Last year

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